Week 6 player prop notes: usage trends through Week 5

Players compared

321

Trending up (+10 pts)

61

Trending down (−10 pts)

37

Out or Doubtful with a role

9

How did we measure it?

Player props are priced on roles, and roles move before box scores do. Over the last 3 games through Week 5, 61 players gained a real share of their team's snaps and 37 lost one. Here's the usage data to set against the number you're shown before Week 6 kicks off.

Snap share is the percentage of a team's offensive plays a player was on the field for, and it's the usage number that moves before the box score does. For every QB, RB, WR and TE we compared his average share over his team's last 3 games through Week 5 with his average in the games before them. Byes don't count, and a game he missed is left out rather than counted as 0%, so an injury doesn't read as a demotion. Trending up means he gained at least 10 points and averaged 40% or more in the last 3; trending down means he averaged 50% or more before and lost at least 10.

Every number comes from the GridIron API: /players, /snaps, /stats and /projections, with injury statuses as of Friday, October 16 at 11:12 am ET. Projections appear only as a gap against recent output, never as a raw number. Nothing here is a pick: it's usage data to set against the number you're looking at. DEN and SEA already played Week 6, so their players are left out.

Whose snap share is trending up?

What it means for a prop model

• George Kittle (TE, SF) has played 89% of snaps over his team's last 3 games, up from 47% before that. He's averaged 16.9 PPR points in that stretch. A number set on his earlier role may not reflect this one.
• Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) has played 91% of snaps over his team's last 3 games, up from 54% before that. He's averaged 24.3 PPR points in that stretch. A number set on his earlier role may not reflect this one.
• Braelon Allen (RB, NYJ) has played 77% of snaps over his team's last 3 games, up from 36% before that. He's averaged 10.7 PPR points in that stretch. A number set on his earlier role may not reflect this one.
• Kyler Murray (MIN) went from 17% to 100% of snaps over the last 3 games. He's averaged 13.7 PPR points in that stretch. Check whether the number you're shown has caught up with the role.

Whose snap share is trending down?

What it means for a prop model

• Justin Jefferson's role shrank: 96% of snaps earlier, 50% over the last 3 games (he missed 1 of them). Listed Healthy today.
• Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) is down from 100% to 76% of snaps over the last 3 games (he missed 1 of them). If the number you're shown still assumes the old role, that's the gap to look at.
• Rashee Rice (WR, KC) is down from 83% to 55% of snaps over the last 3 games. If the number you're shown still assumes the old role, that's the gap to look at.

Whose role grows because a teammate is out?

When a starter sits, his snaps don't disappear: someone at his position plays them, and that player's volume is the number most likely to be stale. The table lists fantasy-relevant players who are Doubtful, Out or on a reserve list for Week 6 after playing in at least one of their team's last 3 games, and the teammate in line for the work, from Week 5 snap share.

What it means for a prop model

• With Breece Hall Doubtful, look at Braelon Allen: the last time Breece Hall sat (Week 5), Braelon Allen went from 54% to 86% of snaps.
• With Travis Etienne Jr. on a reserve list, look at CJ Donaldson: the last time Travis Etienne Jr. sat (Week 5), CJ Donaldson went from 25% to 42% of snaps.
• With David Montgomery out, Woody Marks is next in line by Week 5 snaps (85%). His role is the one to re-check.
• With Deebo Samuel Sr. out, Brandin Cooks is next in line by Week 5 snaps (40%). His role is the one to re-check.
• Michael Pittman Jr. is on a reserve list. When he sat in Week 5, Germie Bernard took the work, 38% to 92% of snaps.

Still Questionable for Week 6: Saquon Barkley (PHI, 42% of snaps this season), Lamar Jackson (BAL, 88% of snaps this season), Rashee Rice (KC, 62% of snaps this season), Jeremiyah Love (ARI, 48% of snaps this season), Chris Olave (NO, 86% of snaps this season), DeVonta Smith (PHI, 94% of snaps this season), Zay Flowers (BAL, 54% of snaps this season), Ladd McConkey (LAC, 54% of snaps this season). Their status settles closer to kickoff; if one sits, the same teammate math applies.

What changed on the injury report this week?

121 status changes were recorded between Monday, October 12 at 2:05 pm ET and Friday, October 16 at 2:05 pm ET, from the Pro /injuries/changes feed. Each one can move a teammate's role.

Where does the Week 6 projection disagree with recent output?

We compared each player's Week 6 projection with his PPR average over his team's last 3 games and kept the gaps of 4 points or more (181 players had a weekly projection and at least 2 recent games). Only the gap is shown; the projection itself is one call away in /projections/6.

What it means: a projection well above recent output expects something to change: a bigger role, a softer matchup or a teammate's absence. If the snap trend above doesn't show the bigger role, the projection is leaning on something else, and that's worth knowing before you compare any number. Gaps below the average work the other way. Either way it's a question to ask, not an answer.

How can I pull this data myself?

Everything on this page is a few API calls away, so you can run the same numbers through your own model. /players returns every player's weekly snap share, so one paginated sweep gets the whole league and the trend math runs locally. This reproduces the trending-up table:

import requests
from collections import defaultdict

API = "https://api.gridirondata.com/api/v1"
H = {"x-api-key": "YOUR_KEY"}
SEASON, THROUGH, WINDOW = "2026", 5, 3

players, cursor = [], None
while True:                                   # about 18 requests for the whole league
    params = {"limit": 100, **({"cursor": cursor} if cursor else {})}
    body = requests.get(f"{API}/players", headers=H, params=params).json()
    players += body["players"]
    cursor = body.get("next_cursor")
    if not cursor:
        break

def snaps(p):
    return p.get("seasons", {}).get(SEASON, {}).get("snap_counts", {}).get("weekly", {})

team_weeks = defaultdict(set)                 # weeks each team played; byes drop out
for p in players:
    for wk, row in snaps(p).items():
        if int(wk) <= THROUGH:
            team_weeks[row["team"]].add(int(wk))

def avg(xs):
    xs = [x for x in xs if x]                 # a missed game is left out, not a 0
    return sum(xs) / len(xs) if xs else None

trends = []
for p in players:
    rows = snaps(p)
    last = rows.get(str(THROUGH))
    if p["position"] not in ("RB", "WR", "TE") or not last:
        continue
    weeks = sorted(team_weeks[last["team"]])
    share = lambda ws: avg([(rows.get(str(w)) or {}).get("offense_pct") for w in ws])
    recent, earlier = share(weeks[-WINDOW:]), share(weeks[:-WINDOW])
    if recent and earlier:
        trends.append((recent - earlier, earlier, recent, p["player_id"]))

for delta, before, after, pid in sorted(trends, reverse=True)[:10]:
    print(f"{delta:+5.0f}  {before:3.0f}% -> {after:3.0f}%  {pid}")

Then go player by player, or pull the rest of the week's inputs:

• GET /snaps/{player_id}?trend=3: one player's weekly snap rows plus his recent and season averages, in one call.
• GET /projections/6?source=weekly&position=WR: the week's projections by position; the gap table above compares them with recent PPR output from /stats.
• GET /injuries/changes?since=... (Pro): just the players whose status flipped since a timestamp, so a teammate's role change reaches your model the same morning.

The sweep is about 18 requests, so the free plan's 50 a month covers trying it; running it every week takes Basic (5,000 a month), and the injury-change feed is part of Pro. Get a free key to start, and see the snap share guide for the details of the snap data.

Frequently asked questions

Are these picks?

No. They're usage trends computed from actual NFL data: snap share, role changes when a teammate is out, and how far a projection sits from recent output. Nothing here says which side of any number to take. Compare the trend with the number you're shown and make your own call.

Why does snap share matter for player props?

Because volume comes from playing time. A receiver on the field for 85% of his team's plays has more chances at catches and yards than one at 50%, and snap share shifts before the box score does when a coach changes a role.

Why the last 3 games?

One game is noisy: a blowout, an early injury or one game plan can swing it. 3 games smooth that out while staying recent enough to catch a real role change. Byes and missed games are left out of the average.

Where does the injury data come from?

Statuses come from /players, which refreshes on a schedule through the week, and status flips from the Pro /injuries/changes feed. This page shows them as of Friday, October 16 at 11:12 am ET and isn't updated after it's published.

Can I use this data in my own model?

Yes. Every number here comes from the GridIron API. A free key covers 50 requests a month, and a full-league /players sweep is about 18 of them.